A revised forecast should not erase the earlier expectation
Preserve a baseline forecast when updating the outlook so weekly forecast-versus-actual review does not silently move its comparison target.
Corporate Recovery Partners
01 / 06
The forecast is updated before the comparison
Suppose the team revises last week's expected receipts to match what actually arrived, then presents a report showing almost no variance. The current outlook may be useful, but the earlier expectation has disappeared.
Keep the original comparison point alongside the updated forecast. Otherwise the weekly review cannot learn which assumptions proved reliable or why a cash surprise occurred.
Identify the version used for the earlier decision and the date it was approved or circulated. Preserve it in a controlled location before preparing a new outlook.
The baseline does not need to be treated as a promise that circumstances will never change. It records what the business expected with the information available at that time.
Use the preserved expectation to identify meaningful differences in receipts and payments. business.gov.au's cash-flow management guidance recommends reviewing expected and actual cash movements.
Explain timing changes, incorrect assumptions and new information separately. Do not overwrite the original figure merely because the later answer is now known; that removes the evidence needed for a useful comparison.
Prepare the new forecast using current supported information. Mark changed assumptions and explain their basis so the team can see what the next decision relies on.
Avoid retaining an unrealistic future number simply to preserve consistency with the old plan. The business needs both a truthful updated outlook and an intact record of its earlier expectation.
If the earlier version contained a data-entry or calculation error, document the correction and its effect. Distinguish that from a legitimate change in circumstances or a forecasting assumption that proved wrong.
Ask the preparer to explain any material restatement. A clear note prevents later reviewers from confusing an improved estimate with a correction to information that should have been accurate at the time.
Bring the prior baseline comparison and the current outlook to the next financial meeting. Keep their purposes explicit: one explains what happened, while the other supports upcoming decisions.
Record the resulting changes to assumptions or actions. A forecast becomes more useful when the business can update it without erasing the history that shows where its planning needs to improve.