A restructure forecast should identify which customers actually fund the recovery

The projected surplus depends on one payer

Suppose a business carrying substantial old debt forecasts enough surplus to service it. More than half the expected receipts come from one customer that regularly disputes variations. The forecast presents all receipts as equally reliable. Before using the surplus in a repayment proposal, show which customers produce it and what must happen for their money to arrive.

Seek advice on the complete position

ASIC advises directors to obtain qualified assistance when they suspect the company cannot meet debts when due. A promising customer forecast is information for that assessment, not proof that trading out is viable. Ask the accountant and insolvency specialist to review the assumptions alongside current liabilities, available funding and any immediate decisions the company must make.

Source: ASIC: Insolvency for directors

Identify the receipts that matter most

Group expected receipts by customer and timing, while retaining the invoice or contract detail underneath. Identify large concentrations and amounts depending on completion, certification or resolution of a dispute. In the hypothetical example, split the customer's ordinary invoices from disputed variations. Do not make one general payment assumption cover amounts with very different obstacles to collection.

Connect receipts with the cost of earning them

Show the labour, materials and other cash required before each significant receipt. A customer may generate substantial sales while requiring heavy expenditure first. Ask the accountant to distinguish revenue, profit and available cash in the plan. Avoid treating the full value of future contracts as money that can immediately be directed towards old creditors.

Test the vulnerable assumption

Review a case in which the main customer's receipt arrives later or is smaller than expected. Explain what that does to the proposed repayments and ongoing operations. Do not present the downside as a prediction; it is a test of the plan's dependence on one assumption. Discuss the implications with advisers before making commitments that only the optimistic case supports.

Make the proposal's dependency visible

Keep the customer assumptions, supporting records and review dates with the repayment forecast. Update the advisers when a major receipt changes status. CRP can help organise the commercial evidence. A credible restructuring discussion needs to show where the surplus is expected to come from, what it costs to earn and what happens if the key payer does not perform as hoped.